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प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिज़र्व बैंक ने सितंबर 2025 के अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण (आईईएसएच)1 2 के परिणाम जारी किए हैं। यह सर्वेक्षण 28 अगस्त से 6 सितंबर, 2025 के दौरान 19 प्रमुख शहरों में किया गया था, जिसमें 6,082 वैध प्रतिक्रियाएँ मिलीं।

मुख्य विशेषताएँ:

  1. मौजूदा औसत मुद्रास्फीति के बारे में परिवारों की धारणा पिछले दौर की तुलना में 20 आधार अंक (बीपीएस) बढ़कर 7.4 प्रतिशत हो गई। हालाँकि, अगले तीन महीनों और एक साल के लिए उनकी मुद्रास्फीति की अपेक्षाएं 20 आधार अंक और 30 आधार अंक घटकर क्रमशः 8.1 प्रतिशत और 8.7 प्रतिशत रह गईं [चार्ट 1ए और 1बी; टेबल 3]।

  2. अल्पकालिक और एक वर्ष आगे, दोनों अवधियों के लिए, सामान्य कीमतों और मुद्रास्फीति में वृद्धि की अपेक्षा करने वाले उत्तरदाताओं की हिस्सेदारी पिछले सर्वेक्षण दौर की तुलना में कम हुई है [टेबल 1(ए) और 1(बी)]

  3. परिवारों ने दोनों समयावधियों के लिए खाद्य उत्पादों, गैर-खाद्य उत्पादों, आवास और सेवाओं की लागत सहित प्रमुख उत्पाद समूहों में मूल्य और मुद्रास्फीति के दबाव में कमी की सूचना दी [टेबल 1(ए) और 1(बी)]।

नोट: कृपया समय क्षृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Sep-24 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 79.7 0.89 80.7 0.87 80.5 0.86 79.5 1.22 77.8 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 55.5 1.21 54.7 1.15 54.4 1.24 52.7 1.58 51.5 1.20
Price increase similar to current rate 19.2 0.86 20.8 0.86 22.0 0.92 24.0 1.42 23.1 0.89
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.55 5.2 0.47 4.1 0.42 2.8 0.39 3.1 0.36
No changes in prices 17.9 0.85 17.3 0.84 17.5 0.83 18.4 1.18 18.5 0.85
Decline in prices 2.5 0.32 2.0 0.27 2.0 0.30 2.1 0.35 3.7 0.43
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 83.9 0.75 83.1 0.77 82.8 0.79 80.0 1.36 79.0 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 60.7 1.07 57.8 1.09 55.8 1.11 53.1 1.60 51.5 1.22
Price increase similar to current rate 16.7 0.77 18.3 0.79 17.7 0.80 23.8 1.37 22.2 1.00
Price increase less than current rate 6.6 0.58 7.0 0.54 9.3 0.62 3.1 0.41 5.3 0.45
No changes in prices 11.2 0.67 12.2 0.69 11.9 0.66 15.9 1.30 14.2 0.80
Decline in prices 4.9 0.42 4.7 0.40 5.4 0.45 4.1 0.47 6.8 0.53
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 76.1 0.92 75.6 0.89 75.3 0.92 74.3 1.33 73.4 0.91
Price increase more than current rate 52.4 1.11 53.3 1.07 51.5 1.14 50.6 1.45 49.4 1.19
Price increase similar to current rate 17.7 0.78 15.3 0.74 17.5 0.75 20.2 1.23 18.7 0.89
Price increase less than current rate 6.1 0.55 7.0 0.54 6.2 0.50 3.5 0.42 5.3 0.45
No changes in prices 19.1 0.85 20.2 0.82 20.2 0.83 21.8 1.27 20.1 0.80
Decline in prices 4.7 0.42 4.2 0.39 4.6 0.40 3.9 0.46 6.5 0.54
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 64.9 1.03 66.7 0.98 66.3 1.01 67.4 1.14 67.8 0.97
Price increase more than current rate 45.9 1.11 45.2 1.11 45.5 1.12 46.6 1.28 49.5 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 14.2 0.71 15.8 0.74 15.3 0.69 17.5 0.98 14.1 0.69
Price increase less than current rate 4.7 0.48 5.8 0.51 5.5 0.46 3.2 0.38 4.2 0.39
No changes in prices 25.2 0.97 24.6 0.90 26.6 0.94 25.9 1.05 21.5 0.83
Decline in prices 9.8 0.55 8.6 0.52 7.1 0.50 6.7 0.57 10.7 0.62
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 77.7 0.88 78.0 0.88 78.3 0.93 77.7 1.10 77.1 0.88
Price increase more than current rate 56.9 1.11 56.5 1.09 57.1 1.16 55.5 1.32 54.9 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 16.3 0.75 16.0 0.73 16.7 0.75 19.7 1.11 18.9 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.48 5.4 0.48 4.4 0.41 2.5 0.38 3.4 0.34
No changes in prices 19.1 0.87 19.1 0.84 19.1 0.88 19.1 1.04 18.7 0.81
Decline in prices 3.3 0.35 2.9 0.34 2.6 0.31 3.2 0.41 4.2 0.41
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 66.9 1.04 69.3 0.98 69.9 0.97 71.7 1.11 66.1 1.00
Price increase more than current rate 46.9 1.15 49.0 1.10 49.7 1.13 50.7 1.42 46.2 1.17
Price increase similar to current rate 15.5 0.73 14.9 0.71 15.9 0.73 17.6 1.11 15.7 0.72
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.46 5.3 0.46 4.3 0.41 3.3 0.41 4.2 0.40
No changes in prices 29.8 1.01 27.8 0.95 28.0 0.97 25.6 1.07 30.0 0.98
Decline in prices 3.2 0.35 3.0 0.34 2.1 0.27 2.8 0.38 3.8 0.43
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Sep-24 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 89.4 0.73 89.7 0.67 89.2 0.68 88.1 1.15 86.8 0.79
Price increase more than current rate 66.5 1.20 65.4 1.12 64.7 1.18 63.2 1.73 61.8 1.22
Price increase similar to current rate 18.6 0.91 19.7 0.88 21.5 0.97 20.1 1.40 21.7 0.94
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.50 4.6 0.44 3.0 0.38 4.9 0.64 3.3 0.36
No changes in prices 8.6 0.67 8.4 0.62 8.8 0.61 9.8 1.11 10.0 0.70
Decline in prices 2.0 0.28 1.9 0.27 2.0 0.26 2.1 0.35 3.2 0.41
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 86.6 0.78 87.9 0.66 87.0 0.66 84.8 1.18 83.3 0.95
Price increase more than current rate 61.8 1.20 60.8 1.09 59.2 1.10 57.9 1.66 56.5 1.34
Price increase similar to current rate 19.2 0.85 21.1 0.83 20.3 0.86 23.7 1.46 22.8 1.03
Price increase less than current rate 5.6 0.55 6.1 0.49 7.5 0.57 3.2 0.41 4.0 0.41
No changes in prices 9.7 0.66 8.9 0.58 10.0 0.58 11.6 1.12 11.5 0.80
Decline in prices 3.8 0.38 3.2 0.33 3.0 0.32 3.6 0.42 5.2 0.49
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 82.4 0.85 82.6 0.78 81.9 0.78 80.7 1.23 79.7 0.96
Price increase more than current rate 58.3 1.20 56.7 1.11 55.8 1.12 55.2 1.66 53.6 1.27
Price increase similar to current rate 18.5 0.83 20.0 0.83 20.7 0.80 22.3 1.41 21.6 0.96
Price increase less than current rate 5.6 0.57 6.0 0.50 5.4 0.46 3.1 0.44 4.4 0.42
No changes in prices 14.0 0.77 13.9 0.71 15.2 0.73 15.7 1.17 15.4 0.84
Decline in prices 3.6 0.37 3.5 0.35 2.9 0.32 3.6 0.44 4.9 0.46
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 76.2 0.93 75.4 0.90 77.0 0.89 77.7 1.53 78.1 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 54.5 1.16 51.9 1.12 54.8 1.12 56.2 1.63 58.0 1.17
Price increase similar to current rate 16.5 0.79 17.9 0.78 17.8 0.79 18.3 1.13 16.5 0.81
Price increase less than current rate 5.1 0.50 5.6 0.46 4.4 0.40 3.2 0.41 3.7 0.37
No changes in prices 17.3 0.79 17.9 0.78 17.9 0.81 18.7 1.49 14.2 0.72
Decline in prices 6.5 0.49 6.6 0.48 5.1 0.41 3.6 0.42 7.7 0.57
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 87.7 0.74 88.3 0.67 88.2 0.69 87.8 0.78 87.5 0.70
Price increase more than current rate 65.9 1.07 66.5 1.03 65.9 1.06 64.8 1.44 63.8 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 17.0 0.79 17.6 0.80 18.5 0.82 20.1 1.24 20.3 0.93
Price increase less than current rate 4.8 0.53 4.2 0.39 3.8 0.40 2.8 0.37 3.4 0.35
No changes in prices 8.9 0.60 9.3 0.60 9.7 0.63 9.3 0.70 9.1 0.58
Decline in prices 3.4 0.40 2.3 0.30 2.1 0.27 3.0 0.39 3.4 0.39
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 82.2 0.85 82.4 0.79 83.0 0.77 84.8 0.85 81.2 0.83
Price increase more than current rate 58.8 1.18 59.4 1.07 59.9 1.12 61.5 1.45 58.4 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 17.9 0.80 17.6 0.79 18.2 0.77 20.1 1.24 18.5 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 5.5 0.57 5.4 0.45 4.8 0.44 3.2 0.41 4.4 0.41
No changes in prices 15.3 0.80 15.0 0.74 15.0 0.75 12.5 0.79 15.4 0.77
Decline in prices 2.4 0.30 2.6 0.31 2.0 0.26 2.7 0.38 3.4 0.42
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Sep-25
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.4 0.08 7.4 0.13 9.1 0.08 8.1 0.11 8.8 0.11 8.7 0.16
Gender-wise                        
Male 8.5 0.13 7.7 0.19 9.1 0.13 8.3 0.15 8.7 0.15 8.6 0.19
Female 8.3 0.12 7.4 0.18 9.2 0.12 8.2 0.16 9.0 0.16 9.1 0.33
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 8.2 0.49 7.3 0.62 9.1 0.51 8.0 0.55 9.3 0.59 9.2 1.02
Other Employees 8.5 0.17 7.4 0.27 9.1 0.18 8.1 0.20 9.1 0.20 8.9 0.32
Self Employed 8.7 0.19 7.9 0.28 9.2 0.19 8.5 0.20 8.7 0.23 8.8 0.34
Homemaker 8.3 0.14 7.2 0.22 9.0 0.15 8.1 0.18 8.9 0.18 8.8 0.28
Retired Persons 8.8 0.35 7.9 0.62 9.1 0.37 8.3 0.66 8.8 0.43 8.3 0.58
Daily Workers 8.4 0.30 7.2 0.45 9.4 0.31 8.4 0.41 8.7 0.38 8.8 0.58
Other category 7.9 0.20 7.1 0.23 8.7 0.20 8.1 0.22 8.4 0.26 8.4 0.32
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.8 0.16 7.0 0.24 8.7 0.17 8.0 0.17 8.7 0.22 8.6 0.25
25 to 30 years 8.3 0.18 7.3 0.20 9.0 0.19 8.1 0.20 9.1 0.23 8.9 0.31
30 to 35 years 8.2 0.18 7.4 0.30 8.9 0.19 8.1 0.22 8.9 0.23 8.9 0.41
35 to 40 years 8.3 0.19 7.2 0.30 8.8 0.20 7.8 0.20 8.4 0.25 8.4 0.34
40 to 45 years 8.4 0.21 7.5 0.34 9.1 0.23 8.1 0.30 8.9 0.27 8.9 0.50
45 to 50 years 8.6 0.22 7.6 0.36 9.4 0.23 8.3 0.35 8.8 0.28 8.8 0.56
50 to 55 years 8.5 0.23 7.8 0.37 9.2 0.24 8.7 0.43 8.6 0.32 9.0 0.50
55 to 60 years 8.8 0.28 7.7 0.43 9.5 0.30 8.4 0.37 8.6 0.36 8.3 0.37
60 years and above 8.8 0.27 7.9 0.52 9.3 0.29 8.5 0.45 8.5 0.36 8.0 0.45
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 5.8 0.24 5.3 0.11 6.5 0.30 5.8 0.21 6.0 0.36 5.8 0.29
Bengaluru 6.1 0.17 5.5 0.10 7.5 0.19 6.9 0.26 7.9 0.28 7.7 0.35
Bhopal 9.0 0.56 9.4 0.95 10.3 0.64 10.3 0.57 9.3 0.65 9.7 1.06
Bhubaneswar 7.5 0.61 6.0 0.41 8.4 0.64 7.7 0.41 7.8 0.82 8.4 0.55
Chennai 6.7 0.33 5.8 0.18 7.4 0.28 6.7 0.33 8.3 0.30 8.3 0.34
Delhi 9.1 0.24 8.0 0.37 9.4 0.23 8.7 0.48 8.2 0.33 7.7 0.62
Guwahati 8.0 0.72 7.2 1.39 8.5 0.72 8.0 0.98 8.6 0.84 8.1 0.94
Hyderabad 8.6 0.27 7.5 0.58 9.5 0.28 8.6 0.43 10.6 0.33 10.7 0.28
Jaipur 6.6 0.31 5.7 0.15 7.3 0.37 6.1 0.37 7.1 0.47 6.4 0.63
Jammu 9.5 1.49 9.4 1.66 8.5 0.71 8.0 1.22 8.1 0.74 7.4 1.21
Kolkata 11.1 0.30 10.5 0.17 11.5 0.28 11.6 0.91 10.6 0.34 10.7 0.53
Lucknow 8.7 0.47 7.9 0.52 8.9 0.52 8.1 0.40 9.2 0.53 9.0 0.78
Mumbai 9.2 0.20 8.5 0.15 9.8 0.22 9.2 0.36 9.6 0.30 10.3 0.16
Nagpur 7.9 0.38 7.4 0.49 8.8 0.41 7.8 0.44 8.0 0.71 8.1 0.94
Patna 7.5 0.51 6.8 0.49 7.9 0.52 7.3 0.45 7.2 0.73 7.3 0.77
Thiruvananthapuram 8.5 0.74 7.8 1.42 9.3 0.82 8.7 0.91 10.7 0.74 10.3 1.08
Chandigarh 9.1 0.51 8.8 0.45 9.8 0.53 9.3 0.77 8.9 0.61 8.6 0.98
Ranchi 8.9 0.36 8.1 0.35 9.0 0.40 8.0 0.44 9.2 0.49 9.3 0.71
Raipur 8.9 0.77 9.2 1.60 9.8 0.77 9.6 1.35 10.1 0.85 10.7 1.11
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Sep-24 8.6 0.09 8.1 0.13 9.6 0.10 9.2 0.23 9.6 0.12 10.0 0.14
Mar-25 8.5 0.08 7.8 0.11 9.5 0.08 8.9 0.13 9.4 0.11 9.7 0.23
May-25 8.4 0.08 7.7 0.12 9.5 0.09 8.9 0.12 9.4 0.11 9.5 0.25
Jul-25 8.1 0.12 7.2 0.26 8.9 0.13 8.3 0.26 8.7 0.17 9.0 0.39
Sep-25 8.4 0.08 7.4 0.13 9.0 0.08 8.1 0.11 8.8 0.11 8.7 0.16
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Sep-24 66.0 66.4 61.6 65.6 67.5
Mar-25 64.4 67.6 60.1 65.0 68.8
May-25 63.5 64.8 60.4 63.6 67.4
Jul-25 65.9 70.5 48.7 50.9 62.7
Sep-25 59.6 63.8 65.3 64.3 71.8
One Year Ahead
Sep-24 78.8 75.1 68.7 77.9 75.9
Mar-25 74.3 72.7 67.0 75.4 76.9
May-25 74.4 70.5 68.6 72.7 75.4
Jul-25 81.6 78.1 69.5 61.9 61.8
Sep-25 75.5 67.8 71.4 69.7 73.0

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Sep-25
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 7 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11
1-<2 1 31 25 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67
2-<3 1 9 138 57 48 21 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 278
3-<4 1 0 16 154 56 62 14 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 307
4-<5 0 2 12 22 166 120 67 10 8 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 414
5-<6 1 1 15 22 22 560 239 268 86 21 95 7 17 4 1 14 10 2 1385
6-<7 1 1 3 3 7 10 145 110 82 24 11 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 401
7-<8 0 0 2 3 0 23 9 183 105 68 54 1 1 1 1 3 0 1 455
8-<9 0 0 1 0 3 11 13 11 222 64 143 8 16 1 0 4 2 0 499
9-<10 0 1 2 0 0 3 5 7 3 84 52 22 23 6 1 1 2 0 212
10-<11 0 2 7 3 4 131 3 7 17 2 335 53 196 20 9 138 55 1 983
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 19 5 7 0 1 0 0 38
12-<13 0 0 0 2 0 21 0 0 0 2 2 1 22 4 11 20 3 0 88
13-<14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 4 6 4 0 21
14-<15 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 15 2 6 0 25
15-<16 0 1 1 3 1 6 1 0 2 0 4 0 1 1 3 89 90 1 204
>=16 1 4 0 0 1 25 3 3 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 9 632 7 694
Total 14 53 224 277 310 997 502 603 528 269 710 114 284 49 45 287 804 12 6082

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Sep-25
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 7 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11
1-<2 12 14 25 10 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67
2-<3 49 6 60 58 63 29 7 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 278
3-<4 35 1 3 82 48 66 31 15 7 4 14 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 307
4-<5 67 0 5 6 86 101 72 20 25 6 20 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 414
5-<6 163 1 0 1 9 310 181 232 154 46 197 12 17 4 4 28 25 1 1385
6-<7 55 1 0 2 1 1 80 59 80 36 60 11 10 0 0 2 1 2 401
7-<8 61 0 1 0 1 7 0 89 61 68 111 16 18 3 3 11 3 2 455
8-<9 69 0 1 1 1 1 1 3 107 33 165 24 52 11 6 19 5 0 499
9-<10 29 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 37 48 21 39 8 8 13 3 0 212
10-<11 89 0 0 2 1 21 0 1 7 0 251 35 173 41 22 219 119 2 983
11-<12 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 3 8 5 3 0 1 38
12-<13 11 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 7 6 24 11 0 88
13-<14 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 7 6 0 21
14-<15 5 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 7 0 25
15-<16 30 0 0 2 0 12 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 110 0 204
>=16 94 2 0 1 1 77 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 512 5 694
Total 787 25 96 168 213 638 375 423 443 230 867 129 341 85 68 378 803 13 6082

1 यह सर्वेक्षण भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक के द्वारा द्विमाही अंतरालों पर संचालित किया जाता है; यह निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबावों पर उत्तरदाताओं से प्राप्त निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करता है। सर्वेक्षण के परिणाम उत्तरदाताओं के विचारों को दर्शाते हैं, जो जरूरी नहीं कि रिज़र्व बैंक द्वारा मान्यता प्राप्त हों।

2 मुद्रास्फीति प्रत्याशाओं के सभी अनुमान मीडियन के रूप में दिए गए हैं, जब तक अन्यथा न कहा गया हो।

3 पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र के परिणाम बैंक की वेबसाइट पर 06 अगस्त, 2025 को जारी किए गए थे। सर्वेक्षण के पिछले चक्रों के लिए यूनिट-स्तर के डेटा, बैंक के भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था पर डेटाबेस (DBIE) पोर्टल (वेबलिंक : https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) पर 'यूनिट-स्तर डेटा' शीर्षक के अंतर्गत उपलब्ध हैं।


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